Energy Systems Change

Efficiency’s an Imperative, Not a Strategy

The IT’S EVERYWHERE Energy Star logo symbolizes both the promise and pitfalls of efficiency’s role in energy system change. The promise is that something like the LED lightbulb gains widespread adoption and saves squillions—that’s a technical term—of kilowatt hours. The pitfall is in squandering those gains by using more energy more efficiently. Using Energy Star-certified hard drives for bitcoin mining, perhaps. Getting the overall energy system to change will require a mix of Energy Star’s industry standards-setting approach, a willingness to use “inefficient” energy storage where and when it makes sense, innovative policy to support regional applications like marine energy, and some out-of-the-box thinking to ensure that induced energy demand doesn’t undermine it all.

At this point, we have a general sense of the energy system change ahead and efficiency’s role in it. As Amory Lovins argued in “A Farewell to Fossil Fuels”, changing the US energy system—a system change—from fossil fuels to renewables will require pursuing three agendas: 1) Radical automotive efficiency; 2) Efficient buildings and factories; and 3) “Modernizing the electric system to make it diverse, distributed, and renewable.” The resulting system is intended to be clean, reliable, and secure.

Energy leaders recognize energy efficiency’s importance. The Pacific Northwest’s focus on efficiency has made it second only to hydropower as an energy source (Energy Trust of Oregon, 2022). But “efficiency” doesn’t always translate into improved across-the-board outcomes. We don’t really take an Energy Star approach to automotive efficiency, for example. The EPA might set MPG requirements, but (e.g.) carveouts for SUVs means that social behavior enters into the equation; maybe someone really wants to drive an H3, affecting aggregate results. Similarly, increasing building and factory efficiency is major business, with software companies like IBM wringing savings from in-building and worker data. Awesense is optimizing the grid itself (Steiner, 2022). But are they serving ever-more efficient buildings and factories in fundamentally unsustainable activity? Google’s data center in The Dalles, Oregon, is about three times the size of a Home Depot, and they want to build two more facilities. How many is ok? Notably, these types of power users tend to guard power and water use as “trade secrets”, so how do we know if they’re using too much? (Thompson, 2022).

Modernizing the electric system, the third of Lovins’ noted agendas, offers an opportunity to put efficiency to use in different ways. Regional approaches to increased generation, like offshore wind and marine energy in the Pacific Northwest, are efficient. Keeping generation as close to users as possible minimizes and/or helps optimize transmission and distribution, which is inherently lossy.

Based on evidence such as Energy Star’s S-curve adoption success in electrical and electronic goods, cost-effectiveness of application-specific “inefficient” energy storage, and the need to harness localized power sources like marine energy and community solar, I argue that energy efficiency is an imperative transitioning away from fossil fuels, but focusing solely on efficiency isn’t a strategy in and of itself, and can induce demand.

Energy Star offers a window into how industry has viewed demand-side management, with “conservation” replaced by ever-more efficient technologies. The technologies have been successful, gaining widespread growth in an S-curve pattern. But when the technologies increase comfort and convenience, which they have, they risk increasing demand and usage (Wilhite).

About that “inefficient” energy storage: Batteries, as efficient and flexible as they are, won’t be the only story. At ~$200kWh (Jacobson, 2021), batteries are one of the most expensive ways to store energy. Borehole heat storage is far less efficient than batteries, but when storage is $1kWh, ~58% efficiency is fine. Similarly, nighttime storage in ice runs ~$38/kWh for cooling at Stanford.

Marine energy efficiency hasn’t been in question as much as cost. LCOE for a developing—albeit increasingly viable—technology has been overly limiting in determining its total value, which also includes grid stabilization and resilience. Fortunately, renewable energy integration has shifted focus from least-cost, solely large-scale, and static generation profiles to energy equity, resilience, resource adequacy. Marine energy proponents have noted that breakdowns for installation costs and the like helped the solar market grow. With solar installation now sufficiently standardized, groups like Energy Trust of Oregon are helping communities achieve energy justice. The group is working with Verde, African American Alliance for Homeownership, and others to build out community solar projects which will (efficiently!) generate power close to its point of use. (NREL, 2022).

Image: Round 3 Solar Energy Innovation Network Team locations

An equitable, resilient, affordable, and efficient energy system will require more than an EV in every driveway. We’ll need to encourage industry to make things which use energy efficiently, as Energy Star does. Many EV makers have noted efforts to make vehicles lighter, which can make them more efficient. At the same time, there are also an awful lot of electric SUVs and pickup trucks in the works. Optimizing building and factory energy efficiency seems like a no-brainer, but the use can seem less clearly related to energy equity and justice than (e.g.) community solar for homes. Energy systems change will take policy to harness regional resources like marine energy. It will require use of “inefficient” energy storage where appropriate. It will require projects like community solar. It may also require a national conversation on needs vs. wants. A well-constructed theory of change for energy systems shouldn’t be squandered on perpetuating existing problems.

Of possible interest: The Future of Energy Depends on Who's Paying

References

Bhatnagark, Dhruv, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory. Winter 2022 presentation to Portland State Energy and Society class.

Jason Busch, Pacific Ocean Energy Trust. Winter 2022 presentation to Portland State Energy and Society class.

Geels, Frank W. Theory Culture & Society. 2014, vol.31 (5) 21-40. “Regime resistance against low-carbon transitions”.

Goldstein et al. Electricity Policy. “Are there rebound effects from energy efficiency”.

Harris, Jeff, Northwest Energy Efficiency Alliance. Winter 2022 presentation to Portland State Energy and Society class.

International Energy Agency. Ocean Energy Systems. “Marine Energy Framework” and “Ocean Energy: Blue Economy”.

Jacobson, Mark. February 24, 2021. “100% Clean, Renewable Energy and Storage for Everything”.

Kaufmann, Betsy, Energy Trust of Oregon. Winter 2022 presentation to Portland State Energy and Society class.

Lovins, Amory. March/April 2012. Foreign Affairs. “A Farewell to Fossil Fuels: Answering the Energy Challenge

O’Neill, Rebecca, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory presentation, Winter 2022 presentation to Portland State Energy and Society class.

Shove & Walker. Research Policy. March 19, 2010. “Governing transitions in the sustainability of everyday life”.

Smil, Vaclav. “Energy Transitions Coming Transitions Expectations and Realities”.

Thompson, Jonathan. February 25, 2022. High Country News. “The Digital World’s Real-World Impact on the Environment”.

Wilhite et al. Consumer Behavior and Non-Energy Effects. “Twenty years of energy demand insight”.